Back to Top

Population

Introduction

It is not possible to specify a precise number of residents or tourists that constitutes a threshold, below which the Island’s population can be deemed to be sustainable; and above which it is deemed to be ‘overpopulated’. This is partly because there is a series of limiting factors or ‘bottlenecks’ which with effort and expense can be overcome one by one, if that were desirable, which is definitely not the case. Partly also because some of them are a matter of personal subjective judgement; and partly because the living conditions which the Island’s community are willing to accept can evolve over time.

Population numbers should be governed by the ability to feed the community, the availability of water and waste management. All properties should store enough water to sustain themselves and tourists and new residents must be encouraged to conserve water and reduce waste.

But pre-eminently, population should be determined by policy that enables Norfolk Island to remain culturally and socially unique into the future. It has been suggested that a limit of 2,000 would achieve these goals, though any figure is somewhat arbitrary.

Limiting factors

The number of people who can be adequately housed, fed and integrated harmoniously into community life is limited by, primarily:

  • Water supply (options other than rainwater tanks are very limited; Norfolk Island has no rivers to supply water for agriculture and with bore and electric pumps the water table is falling rapidly; the sewerage system is a big contributor to this; desalination requires fuel which worsens a different bottleneck and also generates a heavily saline residue; if the water table keeps falling many of the large native trees will die – these trees create humidity that forces clouds to rise into cooler air and precipitate moisture);
  • Food supply (food imports by ship or plane are vulnerable to disruption, many countries such as Australia cannot feed themselves without irrigation);
  • Fuel supply (Australia depends on fuel tankers that pass through politically sensitive shipping channels in the Middle East and the South China Sea; Norfolk is even more distant from sources of petroleum fuels);
  • Supply chains of goods that cannot be produced on Island (some such as computers cannot be produced locally, some could be produced by local craft but at greater expense);
  • Waste disposal (the larger the population the larger the challenge to dispose of waste, especially in the absence of hi-tech equipment for recycling);
  • Land ownership and regulation of development (see separate page, to come, explaining why this is is pivotal);
  • Cultural acceptance.

Engineering can overcome most of the limiting factors, given sufficient funds, but cannot deliver cultural acceptance, the critical residual factor.

Subjective judgement

Some activities such as team sports and certain business services require a threshold number of participants or customers to be viable. Whether certain specific activities are deemed necessary for a rich Island life can be a matter of opinion.

Conditions deemed acceptable can change

The living conditions that people deem tolerable are not fixed forever but change as technology makes higher levels of comfort possible and as public opinion evolves. For example, people now drive distances that in an earlier era would have been deemed within range of a bicycle or walking.

 

Immigration, land ownership and subdivision

See separate page.

 

Reports

A good place to start an analysis is this listing by the Norfolk Island Regional Council’s Senior Strategic Planner of previous studies:

1 Dec. 2022 The Australian Bureau of Statistics released some results of the 2021 Census that deliver insights into the Pitcairn heritage.

2022 Background / History of Population Strategy Development – Norfolk Island (compiled for the Sustainability Advisory Committee May 2022) with associated charts: Population data and graphs.

2011 reports by Planning Officer Alan McNeil – Overview of the Norfolk Island Plan Volume 1 and Population and Sustainability Issues Volume 2.

2013 Sustainable Growth Strategy – Policy Paper of the Government of Norfolk Island.

1985 The Harrison Grierson report Norfolk Island Development Plan includes much information about the biophysical and socio-economic resources of the Island.

1974 Prof. Gilbert Butland conducted a study in 1974 of the population (catalogue reference). For a scanned copy click here (pages 1-49) and here (51-end lacking pages 50 and 60). This research should be repeated as many external conditions have changed since then.